An Update on the
Runup to Presidential Elections in Belarus
SILENCING THE OPPOSSITION LEADS TO SURGE IN POLITICAL MOBILISATION
While the
official Belarusian polls for the upcoming presidential election show an 82,6%
victory for Lukashenko, unofficial Russian polls forecast the results for
Lukashenko under 50% and a tie in the second round between him and the
opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. The reason for this discrepancy is
the fact that independent polling is illegal in Belarus, another fact that
reveals the true face of this regime.
These violations also took place in previous presidential elections.
Every four years, the electoral process is characterized by the bad treatment
and arrests of dissidents and members of the opposition as well as by fraudulent
practices. According to the Right to Choose campaign, most
representatives from opposition parties were excluded from the election
commissions, violating previous recommendations by the Office for Democratic
Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
The authorities
also violated recommendations regarding the rights of candidates and
transparency guarantees. Several presidential candidates have been arrested
including Viktar Babaryka, a high-profile banker, and blogger and activist Sergei
Tikhanovsky. They both had managed to have a significant presence in the polls.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (the wife of the arrested candidate Sergei Tikhanovsky)
decided to continue her husband’s campaign. She also received the support of Viktar
Babaryka and Valer Tsapkala (a prominent businessman) making herself a key
candidate for the opposition. In one of
her rallies, she was joined by Tsapkala’s wife and Babaryka’s campaign manager,
the three women representing the opposition candidates who were barred from
participating in the elections.
Christian
politicians were targeted as well. The co-chair of the Belarusian Christian
Democrats (BCD) and long-standing political activist, Pavel Seviarynets, was
arrested on 7 June 2020. According to testimonies that were shared with ECPM
privately and reported
by Amnesty International, he is being mistreated in jail and is expected to
remain in prison at least for the next two months . Another BCD leader- Volha
Kavalkova (who also ran for the presidential elections)- was restricted
from traveling abroad and from driving her car by the Belarusian
courts. Other BCD activists faced
persecution just for taking part in the election process and for attending
campaign rallies. Some are already in prison. According to the human rights organization
Viasna, between May and June 2020, 90 people received a total of 1,093 days of
arrest under administrative articles used for political persecution. Moreover, according to information that wash shared with ECPM, 102 people received fines totaling about 86,000 rubles (approx. 32,000 Euros). In
total, from May to July, more
than 650 citizens have been arrested.
Interestingly, in
this climate of fear, repression and arrests, the explosion of coronavirus
cases in Belarus acted as a catalyst for citizen mobilization. Lukashenko dismissed
the pandemic as “psychosis” and recommended treating it by drinking vodka and
having saunas. The government’s mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis led people
who previously viewed themselves as apolitical to start getting involved in the
election process, to adopt preventive measures voluntarily and to participate
in a growing number of civic initiatives.
Although
Lukashenko is expected to win the elections aided by the state apparatus he
completely controls, the opposition poses for him a significant challenge
(maybe for the first time in 26 years). According to Balki Begumhan Bayhan, a
PhD candidate at Coventry University whose research focuses on authoritarian
regimes and the factors that lead to their development, “there may even be a
chance of the election going to the second round. Even in this scenario,
however, there is a strong chance of Lukashenko winning, considering the other
types of foul play which typically take place in the country’s elections.” Regardless the outcome, the election process
this time around certainly reveals the fragility of the Belarusian regime.
Besides troubles
at home, Lukashenko is struggling internationally, as well. The Russia –
Belarus relations have been deteriorating for a while now, caused mainly by
Russia’s threats to Belarus’ sovereignty. That, in turn, led to financial
difficulties for Belarus. For many years, Belarus enjoyed close ties with the
Russian Federation. After the events in Ukraine in 2014, Belarus has a special
strategic importance to Russia. In case
of war with NATO, Belarus could ensure access for Russian troops to the Suwalki
corridor, a 60 mile stretch of the Polish-Lithuanian border, cutting off Baltic
states from the rest of NATO. For a decade, Minsk had been receiving discounted
Russian oil and exporting refined petroleum products to Russia. However, the
sanctions imposed on Russia after the annexation of Crimea led to a decrease in
the economic assistance to Belarus. At the same time, the Russian government
sought to tightly integrate the two countries’ defense apparatuses into a joint
command center (following a model used in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia in Georgia). There is also an effort on behalf of Russia to
integrate the two countries’ tax, customs and civil codes. President Lukashenko
has resisted all these Russian efforts. He is not interested in a military
confrontation with the West in which Belarus would be the frontline. Earlier
this year, Russia suspended oil and gas supplies to the country.
The tension in
Russian – Belarusian relations led the Minsk government to appeal to the West.
In September 2019, Belarus and the US announced plans to exchange ambassadors. Belarus
is also strategically important to the West. Therefore, the Belarusian
situation presents Western governments with a dilemma: should they try to come
closer to the Lukashenko regime for geopolitical gains despite its appalling
human rights record or allow it to fall under the Russian sphere of influence? Brian
Whitmore, Director of the Russia Program at the Center for European Policy
Analysis argues that the right course of action is to continue assisting anti –
government civil society organizations in Belarus and at the same time to make
sure Moscow understands that any attempt to violate Belarusian sovereignty
would lead to Russia being sanctioned again. Currently, Belarus’ relationship
with the West is strained, mainly because of Western support for pro-democracy
anti-government civil society actors in the country. Although Belarus is
included in EU’s European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the EU has imposed an
arms embargo, a ban on the export of goods for internal repression, an asset
freeze and a travel ban against four people listed in connection with the
unresolved disappearances of two opposition politicians in 1999 and in 2000.
Additionally, Belarus remains the only country in greater Europe that is not a
member of the Council of Europe.
I believe that
any policy towards Belarus should place the protection of human rights above
any other interest and that Western governments should exert more pressure on
Belarus and give more support to civil society organizations on the ground. For
the first time in almost three decades, the Belarusian people are challenging
Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime and demanding change. Hence, the presidential
elections this month must be closely monitored and the West needs to be swift in
condemning the fraudulent practices of the government. Belarus’ only path to
normalization of ties with the EU is through free and fair elections, and by
respecting fundamental human rights.
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