A CHALLENGE TO “EUROPE’S LAST DICTATOR”

An Update on the Runup to Presidential Elections in Belarus

The republic of Belarus is getting ready for presidential elections. They are scheduled to take place on the 9th of August. Authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko is running again for president; often dubbed “Europe’s last dictator”, he is expected to win (as he did in the 2001, 2006, 2010 and in the 2015 elections). The regime is infamous for its human rights violations and the authoritarian style of governance of the Lukashenko administration.  In the Economic Intelligence Unit Democracy Index 2019 (EIU), the country is ranked as “authoritarian”.   The abuses concern journalists, civil society activists and independent media as well as ordinary citizens who protest. In 2012, I already wrote an article on the human rights situation in Belarus when I visited one of the constituency congresses of our friends from the Belarusian Christian Democracy party.  Unfortunately, nothing has changed since. Recently, the ECPYouth (the youth movement of the ECPM) urged President Alexander Lukashenko and the Belarusian government to “stop further detentions, arrests, disruptions of peaceful demonstrations and punishments of their own citizens for their rightful social and political activism” and “fully sympathizes with the Belarusian civil society in their effort to have free and fair democratic elections, and an independent state, which guarantees protection of rights and freedoms of their citizens”  As the elections draw near, human rights violations, intimidation and pressure on the opposition intensifies. This article seeks to analyze the current situation and contribute to the debate on what the West’s response to the behavior of this regime should be

SILENCING THE OPPOSSITION LEADS TO SURGE IN POLITICAL MOBILISATION

While the official Belarusian polls for the upcoming presidential election show an 82,6% victory for Lukashenko, unofficial Russian polls forecast the results for Lukashenko under 50% and a tie in the second round between him and the opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. The reason for this discrepancy is the fact that independent polling is illegal in Belarus, another fact that reveals the true face of this regime.  These violations also took place in previous presidential elections. Every four years, the electoral process is characterized by the bad treatment and arrests of dissidents and members of the opposition as well as by fraudulent practices. According to the Right to Choose campaign, most representatives from opposition parties were excluded from the election commissions, violating previous recommendations by the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

The authorities also violated recommendations regarding the rights of candidates and transparency guarantees. Several presidential candidates have been arrested including Viktar Babaryka, a high-profile banker, and blogger and activist Sergei Tikhanovsky. They both had managed to have a significant presence in the polls. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (the wife of the arrested candidate Sergei Tikhanovsky) decided to continue her husband’s campaign. She also received the support of Viktar Babaryka and Valer Tsapkala (a prominent businessman) making herself a key candidate for the opposition.  In one of her rallies, she was joined by Tsapkala’s wife and Babaryka’s campaign manager, the three women representing the opposition candidates who were barred from participating in the elections.

Christian politicians were targeted as well. The co-chair of the Belarusian Christian Democrats (BCD) and long-standing political activist, Pavel Seviarynets, was arrested on 7 June 2020. According to testimonies that were shared with ECPM privately and reported by Amnesty International, he is being mistreated in jail and is expected to remain in prison at least for the next two months . Another BCD leader- Volha Kavalkova (who also ran for the presidential elections)- was restricted from traveling abroad and from driving her car by the Belarusian courts.  Other BCD activists faced persecution just for taking part in the election process and for attending campaign rallies. Some are already in prison. According to the human rights organization Viasna, between May and June 2020, 90 people received a total of 1,093 days of arrest under administrative articles used for political persecution. Moreover, according to information that wash shared with ECPM, 102 people received fines totaling about 86,000 rubles (approx. 32,000 Euros). In total, from May to July, more than 650 citizens have been arrested.

Interestingly, in this climate of fear, repression and arrests, the explosion of coronavirus cases in Belarus acted as a catalyst for citizen mobilization. Lukashenko dismissed the pandemic as “psychosis” and recommended treating it by drinking vodka and having saunas. The government’s mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis led people who previously viewed themselves as apolitical to start getting involved in the election process, to adopt preventive measures voluntarily and to participate in a growing number of civic initiatives.

Although Lukashenko is expected to win the elections aided by the state apparatus he completely controls, the opposition poses for him a significant challenge (maybe for the first time in 26 years). According to Balki Begumhan Bayhan, a PhD candidate at Coventry University whose research focuses on authoritarian regimes and the factors that lead to their development, “there may even be a chance of the election going to the second round. Even in this scenario, however, there is a strong chance of Lukashenko winning, considering the other types of foul play which typically take place in the country’s elections.”  Regardless the outcome, the election process this time around certainly reveals the fragility of the Belarusian regime.

GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

Besides troubles at home, Lukashenko is struggling internationally, as well. The Russia – Belarus relations have been deteriorating for a while now, caused mainly by Russia’s threats to Belarus’ sovereignty. That, in turn, led to financial difficulties for Belarus. For many years, Belarus enjoyed close ties with the Russian Federation. After the events in Ukraine in 2014, Belarus has a special strategic importance to Russia.  In case of war with NATO, Belarus could ensure access for Russian troops to the Suwalki corridor, a 60 mile stretch of the Polish-Lithuanian border, cutting off Baltic states from the rest of NATO. For a decade, Minsk had been receiving discounted Russian oil and exporting refined petroleum products to Russia. However, the sanctions imposed on Russia after the annexation of Crimea led to a decrease in the economic assistance to Belarus. At the same time, the Russian government sought to tightly integrate the two countries’ defense apparatuses into a joint command center (following a model used in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia). There is also an effort on behalf of Russia to integrate the two countries’ tax, customs and civil codes. President Lukashenko has resisted all these Russian efforts. He is not interested in a military confrontation with the West in which Belarus would be the frontline. Earlier this year, Russia suspended oil and gas supplies to the country.

The tension in Russian – Belarusian relations led the Minsk government to appeal to the West. In September 2019, Belarus and the US announced plans to exchange ambassadors. Belarus is also strategically important to the West. Therefore, the Belarusian situation presents Western governments with a dilemma: should they try to come closer to the Lukashenko regime for geopolitical gains despite its appalling human rights record or allow it to fall under the Russian sphere of influence? Brian Whitmore, Director of the Russia Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis argues that the right course of action is to continue assisting anti – government civil society organizations in Belarus and at the same time to make sure Moscow understands that any attempt to violate Belarusian sovereignty would lead to Russia being sanctioned again. Currently, Belarus’ relationship with the West is strained, mainly because of Western support for pro-democracy anti-government civil society actors in the country. Although Belarus is included in EU’s European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the EU has imposed an arms embargo, a ban on the export of goods for internal repression, an asset freeze and a travel ban against four people listed in connection with the unresolved disappearances of two opposition politicians in 1999 and in 2000. Additionally, Belarus remains the only country in greater Europe that is not a member of the Council of Europe.

 CONCLUSION

I believe that any policy towards Belarus should place the protection of human rights above any other interest and that Western governments should exert more pressure on Belarus and give more support to civil society organizations on the ground. For the first time in almost three decades, the Belarusian people are challenging Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime and demanding change. Hence, the presidential elections this month must be closely monitored and the West needs to be swift in condemning the fraudulent practices of the government. Belarus’ only path to normalization of ties with the EU is through free and fair elections, and by respecting fundamental human rights.

 

 Photo by Osman Yunus Bekcan on Unsplash